[SMM Analysis: SHFE/LME Lead Price Ratio Diverges in 2024-2025, Lead-Acid Battery Export Pattern Reverses]

SMM reported on March 21: According to customs data, lead-acid battery imports in February 2025 were 510,800 units, up 29.5% MoM and 57.06% YoY; cumulative imports for January-February 2025 were 905,300 units, up 9.45% YoY.
Lead-acid battery exports in February 2025 were 12.7963 million units, down 41.98% MoM and 17.38% YoY; cumulative exports for January-February 2025 were 34.8527 million units, down 90.92% YoY.

It is understood that from January to February, the lead price trend was stronger domestically and weaker overseas, with the SHFE/LME lead price ratio gradually expanding, opening the import window for lead-related products. Especially in February, the ratio was better than in January, leading to an increase in lead-acid battery imports compared to the previous month, while lead-acid battery exports further declined. In addition to the difference in domestic and overseas lead prices, the Chinese New Year holiday spanned late January to early February, during which lead-acid battery companies generally took a break, and logistics and transportation were suspended, also contributing to the decrease in lead-acid battery exports in January-February.

Compared to the same period in 2024, the cumulative export volume of lead-acid batteries in January-February 2025 diverged significantly, mainly due to changes in the domestic and overseas lead price ratio. In the same period of 2024, the SHFE/LME lead price ratio narrowed, favoring the export of lead-related products, with cumulative lead-acid battery exports up 27.1% YoY. It is understood that this year, due to higher domestic lead prices, the competitive pressure faced by lead-acid battery exports in the overseas market has increased, with Southeast Asian and neighboring countries relying on relatively cheaper lead-acid battery products, having a particularly significant impact on China's lead-acid battery export competition.